Transición a una red funcional de seguridad financiera en América Latina

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La arquitectura básica de la red de seguridad financiera mundial permite la existencia de u sistema de instituciones afines: un prestamista de última instancia, garantía de depósitos y regulación prudencial. En países cuyos sistemas bancarios adolecen de graves posiciones negativas de capital y de exceso de intermediación bancaria, tales como algunos mercados latinoamericanos, las redes de seguridad y los mecanismos detallados de su funcionamiento pueden no ser funcionales para reducir el exceso de riesgo a asumir. Ofrecen a los bancos sólidos incentivos para duplicar sus posibilidades de supervivencia. Así, las posiciones negativas de capital de los bancos quedan eliminadas con inyecciones de capital, liquidaciones y fusiones.

Transition from Inflation to Price Stability

This paper provides a detailed discussion of the real phenomena that materialized in the stabilization period which followed the German hyper-inflation. Significant real dislocations arose after the monetary reform; and these can be attributed to a government policy which subsidized heavy industry through the inflation tax proceeds. The "credibility problem" appears not to have been a significant factor in the post-reform dislocation.

The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates

In this paper we generalize the target zone exchange rate as model formalized by Krugman (1988b) to include finite-sized interventions in defense of the zone. The main contributions of these pages consist of linking the recent developments in the theory of target zones to the mirror-image theory of speculative attacks on asset price fixing regimes and in using aspects of that linkage to give an intuitive interpretation to the smooth pasting" condition usually invoked as a terminal condition.

A Systematic Banking Collapse in a Perfect Foresight World

In this paper we present a model in which a systematic banking collapse is possible in a perfect foresight, general equilibrium context. Our aim is to determine con3itions under which a collapse will eventually occur and the timing of such a collapse. The collapse can occur endogenously, driven by market fundamentals. Alternatively, it can be caused by a mass hysteria which generates itself in reality. Vie also compare the assumptions and implications of our model to the observable phenomena of the 1930's.

Process Consistency and Monetary Reform: Further Evidence and Implications

In this paper we provide additional evidence that process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process. In addition to recomputing the time series of process consistency probabilities using new data from the German case, we also supply our empirical technique to the data from the other hyperinflations studied by Cagan. We interpret our results as evidence hearing on the type of transversality condition studied by Brock or by Brock and Scheinkman as a sufficient condition to insure a unique equilibrium in optimizing models with perfect foresight and money.

Bank Runs in Open Economies and The International Transmission of Panics

In this paper, we extend the bank run literature to an open economy model. We show that a foreign banking system, by raising deposit rates in the presence of a domestic banking panic, may generate sufficient liquid resources to acquire assets sold by the domestic banking system at bargain prices. In this case, foreign depositors will benefit from the domestic panic. We also show that our simple model is able to generate the spreading of panics. Perhaps not surprisingly, the crucial element in determining the propagation of financial crises is the effect of interest rates on savings decisions.

Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline

The paper is a study of the price level and relative price effects of a policy to monetize gold and fix its price at a given future time and at the then prevailing nominal price. Price movements are analyzed both during the transition to the gold standard and during the post-monetization period. The paper also explores the adjustments to fiat money which are necessary to ensure that this type of gold monetization is non-inflationary. Finally, some conditions which produce a run on the government's gold stock leading to the collapse of the gold standard and the timing of such a run are examined.